Marlwaukee (pun-master!)

Ok, last nights roundup (if you can call it that) was not adequate, so here comes a whole shit load of my opinion. Also Jays rumours. 




The Marcum Deal


This deal only gives me a chubby, so AA must me slowing down. Just jokes, but it is sad to see a pitchers pitcher like Marcum depart the Jays. I wish him the best of luck in Milwaukee. The Jays received Brett Lawrie, a 21 year old second basemen who just finished his first year in AA. The Langley, BC native hit .285/.346/.451 last year, and was the Brewers best prospect. He has a very good bat and decent speed, he had 16 (16!!!!!!) triples last year. His defence is atrocious though, as  MLBTR said this, 


"The 16th pick in the 2008 draft, Lawrie is said to be an aggressive hitter with good pop.  While he was praised for his strong hands and quick bat, Baseball America writes that he needs to dedicate himself to defense if he wants to become a second baseman in the mold of Jeff Kent. Some scouts believe the soon-to-be 21-year-old is destined for an outfield corner."


So, yeah. I personally hope he stays in the infield at either second or third. Hell, maybe even first. Doesn't really matter, his bat WILL play. (says my almost super-human guessing ability). He was 20 this year and he turned in a .360 WOBA at AA, so thats kind of nails. 




Mathias Diaz


Well, he could platoon with Lind. It would be nice to just steal him from the Yankees, but this is also a three horse race, with the mariners sticking their retarded asses into the mix, so who the fuck knows. I, for one, would be cool with it.




Carlos Pena


Sign him to a one year deal with an option for '12 and '13, with the payday for those years being relatively huge. If he returns to form, you have a slugging first basemen for three years, if not, just dump him at the deadline or waive him. Win-win. Of course they have to sign him first, but I hope they get him.


Rusty 'Maple Boners' Martin


Apparently the Jays looked at his medical sitch today. Doubt they sign him.

Non-tender Musings

Sorry that i haven't really been updating this blog, though I doubt anyone really reads it anyways, because fuck blogs. Anyways, i've been a bit overloaded with homework recently, so that is the cause of my absence from this increasingly shitty blog.


Now, to actual baseball. MLBTR recently released the lists of non-tender for the National and American leagues. I wont link to them because i'm having a fuck of time trying to get it to work, so if you care that goddamn much, go find it yourself.


Anyways, i've decided, because studying is a bitch, that I'll try too see if any of them fit the Jays


Matt Albers RP
If I were AA I would either try to land Albers for a very low price, or extend him an invite to spring training (I would also enjoy greek salad). He's been moderately effective out of the pen for the orioles, and while he'll never (ever) blow anyone away (career K/9 rate of 5.84) he'll provide consumption of innings. He'll never be great, but he'll at least be better than Brian Tallet right?


Bobby Jenks RP


Sign him. Right now. Now.  RIGHTFUCKINGNOW. Holy shiiiit, do the White Sox look like fucking senile blowhards on this one. Yes, his ERA was 4.44 last year, but his FIP was fucking 2.59, while his XFIP was 2.62. He's still only 29 or 30 (I can never tell on those (3/14/1981 things), he just had his best season since 2007, his K-rate was over 10/9, he walked just over 3/9, and he had a ground ball rate of 58%. He's not Mariano Rivera, but he'll fucking do. Sign the guy to a 1-2 year deal at say, 3.5 per, and huzzah, closer problem solved. (I don't actually believe strongly in the concept of closers, but they're nice to have, aren't they?)


Zach Miner RP


either him or Albers, take your pick.


Hideki Okajima RP/Organizational consultant


OK, this one's a little outside the box, but sign Oka-cheese to a deal, let him retire as an MLB-er, and let him stay on as head of Japanese scouting or something, or if AA deems he's not intelligent enough to head a major office like that, keep him as a personal baseball/english for any potential pacific rimmers to come to the Jays.
(i didn't do any research on this one, because really, who gives a shit)


I'll do the NL tomorrow, because i'm a lazy fucker.


In slightly related notes, the Jays did tender Dustin 'bow down to my mutton chops' Mcgowan.


They're also pursuing AJ Piersyzinski. I literally fucking hate him. Apparently they're close to a deal but fuck, i want to see the AAA fucking MVP catch.


Note: Joe Cowley is a lying pig-fucker.

A quick break from that shitty list

Here's some of the noteworthy transactions (and rumours) that involve the Jays. This is just a summarization of the stuff on MLBTR, so just check that out if you want to avoid looking at this blog for too long. Most of this post is just what they said, but re-written by a 9th grader, so i would recommend just reading it there.


A's claim Edwin Encarnacion


I think this just guarantees Brad Emaus starting at third this year. I don't see the Jays going after a 3B in free-agency, simply due to the lack of quality players, and unless AA works some magic via trade (Gordon) its Emaus's job to lose.


Dewayne Wise/ Brian Tallet hit free- agency


They both refused outright claims to AAA, so now the Jays only have 11 arbitration eligible players. Wise is a poor man's Fred Lewis, and Tallet has only his mutton chops going for him. This was a surprise to no-one that they're gone.


Buster Olney says stuff


Some interesting tidbits here. Olney states that the Rays are willing to move Upton, and would not have to be overwhelmed to pull the trigger on a deal. He also says that the Yankees are interested in Buck, but not as interested the Red-Sox, i don't really understand the Red-Sox interest. That could be because im a hge believer in Saltalammachia, but i guess it would be nice to have some depth catching. He also talks about how Downs compensation pick could be a second or third rounder, due to higher ranking free-agents being signed by the same team.


Greinke


As you've probably heard on other blogs that aren't lazy fucks, the Jays are interested in Greinke. I doubt we get him though. Also Alex Gordon.


On the coaching staff:


Fuckin' A. I love our staff

Potential Jays Trade Targets (A.L East)

Just a quick word here on BA's new prospect list. I won't do a post on it, because i don't know enough about prospects to fully explain each players position on the list, and it's already been summed up pretty nicely over at The Southpaw, and The 5th Starter. With no further ado, lets venture forth into the A.L East portion of this (shitacular) list.


Baltimore Orioles


Luke Scott DH/1B


He certainly wouldn't be the Jays long term solution at first, but he could definitely keep the seat warm for whoever the Jays decide is the future of the franchise going forward at first. He would provide above-average pop (.235 career ISO), good patience (11.2% BB), and in general a good bat. His defence is a little shoddy, as is shown by his career UZR of -0.6, but I'm of the belief that you don't need a gold glove first basemen too win ballgames. He'd be a nice piece, but not something you'd build around. You don't necessarily have to acquire him now either, wait and see if (opening day 1st basemen) works out at first.


The Orioles are a rebuilding franchise, and while you'd obviously inquire about their young players, I doubt the Orioles would be entirely happy to part with them. Luke Scott works this way because he is roughly 30, and is a nice piece for the Orioles to get prospects back for. As large as my Man-crush on Brian Matusz is, I don't see the Orioles parting with him. Or Wieters for that matter. Really any of their kids would be off-limits, especially to a division opponent.


Tampa Bay Rays


B.J Upton CF/INF


B.J is the obvious choice when you think about the Jays. AA went after a similar player (similar as in they both had slightly down years, and basically nothing else) in Yunel Escobar. He provides average patience (11.3% BB), nice pop (ISO of .187 last year) and the speed of a gazelle, as witnessed by 40+ SB in his last three years. He's a good fielder, with a career UZR/150 of 5.8. He was converted to a CF in 2007, so his ability to play infield would be in question. If he could still play the infield though, it would prove a valuable commodity to John Farrell. With Upton, Wells would be pushed to right, Bautista would march over to third, AA could non-tender E5, or have him platoon with Adam Lind at first. Of course if they were to do that, I'd rather it be with Colby Rasmus in center, but that thought is for another day. 


Dioner Navarro C


Sign him for cheap, keep him as a backup, then trade him for something when a team is analed during the season by catching injuries, simple as that. Or don't even wait that long, and trade to one of the teams you were bidding against for something this winter. (Note: make sure you're actually bidding against someone and he actually still has value.)


If you want to pursue Dan Johnson as your 2010 first base backup option, go ahead. I like some of Tampa's young pitching, but I also love the Jays young pitching, and doubt we need much more (starting) pitching. Maybe get Randy Choate just so Adam Lind can take him out behind the Jays clubhouse and pummel him.


Boston Red Sox


Jed Lowrie 3B/SS/2B


Here's a guy who is sort of blocked in Boston. They have Beltre at third, Scutaro/Iglesias at short and PEDroia at first. So it's logical that the Jays should try to pick up Lowrie, deal Hill while he still has some lingering value from 2009, and see what happens. Lowrie's poor 2009 season was partially caused by an injured wrist, and he rebounded nicely in 2010. He walked 12.7% of the time, and cut his strikeouts down to a manageable 14.6%. His ISO was a bit high, at .240 compared to a career .172, but thats pretty solid for a middle infielder. He is a much better fielder at second than short or third, so that would probably be his final destination in the field as a Jay.


Go after Daniel Bard if you want, but other than him, there isn't much on the Red Sox that would be attainable. And I will never cheer for Jonathan Papelbon. 


New York Yankees


I actually don't see many pieces on the Yankees that are both helpful to the Jays and viable. I mean Robi Cano would be nice, but a kings ransom would be needed to aquire him. Joba Chamberlain was the obvious selection for this portion of the piece, but looking at his numbers, his one successful season, 2007, was incredibly lucky. Most of his value would have to be through starting, and I don't see him doing that successfully ever.

Potential Jays Trade Targets (A.L Central)

Cleveland Indians


Matt LaPorta 1st Base
Matt LaPorta was the centrepiece in the C.C Sabathia deal that sent C.C over to the Brewers, so he was once a very highly touted prospect. A bit of the shine has come of though in recent years as his career MLB line is a meek .232/.307.308. He's always raked in the minors though, and his MLB career walk rate is a healthy 9%, and although his k-rate is a little high (21%) if the power comes around it shouldn't be a problem. He is a right handed bat, so Rogers Centre may help his power come into fruition a tad. He's a bit of a brick in the field, with an UZR/150 of -5.7, but you can live with that from your first basemen. 


I don't think the Indians would be willing to part with Carlos Santana (Casey BLake!!!!) or Shin-Soo Choo, so I'm going to leave it there for now.


Kansas City Royals


Billy Butler 1st Base
Another first basemen. Like AA said, it's the easiest position to obtain talent. (he did say that, right? After the Wallace trade?). Butler has had consecutive strong years at the dish, and although he clubbed less home runs this year, he did manage to raise his BB-rate to 10.2, and lower his K-rate (13.1%). His power numbers would go up in Rogers Centre anyways. He's about the same fielder as LaPorta, and wouldn't be much of a detriment to the ball club that way.


I wouldn't go anywhere else with the Royals. I like our pitching staff enough without Greinke, and I think Kila Ka'aihue's ship has sailed (unfortunately). The Jays have too much outfield depth to obtain Alex Gordon IMO, and from what knowledge I've managed to glean from Rany on the Royals, Most of the young outfielders on their club are career fourths. Joakim Soria would be nice, but how much are you willing to give up for a man that at maximum provides a WAR around 2.5.


Detroit Tigers


Daniel Schlereth RP
Schlereth, a part of the three-way Granderson trade, had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, and impressed. In 18 2/3 innings he had an era of 2.89, a k/9 of 9.16 and managed to scrape together a BB/9 of 4.82. He's still young (24) and could be the closer for next year.


Looking at the slew of young hitters for Detroit is kind of misleading. When I see Austin Jackson, I see a k-rate of 27.5 and a BABIP of .396. Although he has great speed, he will not be able to post a BABIP that high with any consistency. He walks at a decent clip, but he's not a viable leadoff candidate due to the k's. He could still provide value to the Ja- Oh right, the Tigers would demand a king's ransom in return. No thanks. Brennan Boesch strikes out far too often, and has only only had one season with justifiable power numbers to counter-act that (his 2008 AA season). Don Kelly is a non-entity.


Minnesota Twins


Alexi Casilla Middle Infield
He walks at a decent clip (7.6%) doesn't strike out much (11.2%) provides decent OBP (.331), and is quick. According to Fangraphs his 'Speed rating' is 8.0. I have no idea how it's calculated, so please, don't ask. He had an UZR of 4.0 in 2010. All of his stats cited in this paragraph are 2010 only. His 2009 season was atrocious, please also note that he didn't play much in 2010 (170 Major league PA's).


I don't really fancy any of the Twins young hitters currently in the Bigs, and their pitching philosophy of 'pound the strike zone with below-average fastballs' doesn't really fly with me. Call me old fashioned but I do like a nice 95mph heater. 


Chicago White Sox


Chris Sale SP/RP
Wish the Jays would have drafted this kid. He was lights out for the 'Sox last year, with a K/9 of 13.34, a BB/9 of 3.86 and a FIP of 2.74. It's not like he got lucky either, as his BABIP was an average .278. Have him as your Closer or have him be the swing-man of the rotation, keeping everyone's innings low.

Potential Jays Trade Targets (A.L West)

I've decided to do a list of whom the Jays could pursue this offseason. I'll release the list division by division, and i've decided to star with the AL West. Note that all I'm going to talk about is Major league talent, and no prospects will be involved.

The A's

Daric Barton 1st Base

If AA could go out and get Barton it would make me a happy Jays fan. He may not have the power you would expect out of a traditional first basemen, but he had an OBP of .393 last season, and the Jays don't really need the power they would receive out of the first base spot because everyone on the roster is capable of 20 home runs ( I think Escobar has some hidden pop in him). Plus he's only 26, and is also a great fielding first baseman (career UZR/150 of 9.1)

The Angels  

Howie Kendrick 2nd Base

He doesn't do one thing exceptionally, but he does provide alright Speed (14 sb's), decent on-base skills(.327 career OBP) and average pop (.131 career ISO). He's a decent fielder (career UZR/150 of 3.0) and would be a nice piece for the Jays.

Erick Aybar Short stop

There isn't much of a need for Aybar as a shortstop (Escobar, Hechavarria, Pierre) but he would be useful as a second basemen. He had a bit of a down year last year, but I'm willing to believe that 2009 wasn't an illusion. In that year he had a triple slash line of .312/.353/.423 and although he never walks (5.0% career walk rate) he wouldn't need to with an average .300+. His BABIP last year dipped from .338 to .289, so that could also be a reason his average plummeted from .312 to .253.

He's always had good speed (will steal 20 bag's a year) and would be a nice chip to trade when Hechavarria/Pierre is ready. He's a middle classed man's Howie Kendrick.

Seattle Mariners

There is no one on this team that would be of use to the Jays. Sure King Felix is probably the best pitcher in the A.L, but would the  Mariners brass be willing to trade him? hell no. Smoak is staying put, I personally don't wan't an aging Ichiro (I was at the game he walked-off on Scott Downs) and Chone Figgins has a huge price-tag attached to his name. Brandon League is Brandon League, and all of their other pitchers would die in the homer haven that is the Rogers Centre. Michael Saunders would have to fight T-snide and Bautista for playing time, and Ian Snell had an era over 7.00 last year while pitching away from Safe Co Field. No thanks, Seattle is a burning heap of terrible right now.

Texas Rangers

 Derek Holland SP

I love the guy. It completely baffles me that Washington didn't slate him as the game four starter over Tommy Hunter (not that Hunter pitched poorly). He's always had a high K-rate (8.48 last year), and has alright control for a pitcher as young as he is (he's 24, and walked 3.77 batters per 9 last year). You'd probably have to trade Marcum+Cecil/prospect to land him. It would be worth it though. He's a Left handed Drabek, and next to Feliz he is the next big thing for Texas. With him the Jays would run out a rotation in 2011 looking something like this

Morrow

Romero

Holland

Drabek

Stewart/Cecil

I don't know about you, but that gets me going.

                                                   

An In-Depth Look at Aaron Hill

Looking at Aaron Hill's stats from a glance will tell you this. The man was brutal with the bat last year. With an average barely hovering above the mendoza line, an OBP below .300 and a slugging bellow 400, he really blew. Now you have to be thinking, "really? he cant be that bad, I mean his OPS was .835 just a season ago". You would have a point, Hill had a league low babip of .196. That's insane, but there has to be something fuelling that incredibly low babip, right? If you take a look at Hill's advanced batted ball profile via fangraphs you'll see that his GB/Fb last year was 0.65, .32 points below his career average of 0.97, his line-drive rate was 10.6% this year as apposed to a 18.5% career average. He had a flyball% over 50% for the first time in his career. It appears that the only thing on Hill's mind this year was hitting homeruns. Although he did hit 26 he had to sacrifice everything that made him a decent hitter. I think if he dials back his approach and just tries to hit the ball hard, he could rejuvinate himself as a .270/.320/.450 player. If he doesnt i believe Hill won't be a Jay for long


Quickly on Adam Lind though, recently on Drunk Jays Fans I read that Lind was 5-167 against lefties or something fucktarded like that. Could that be a part of the 'pull everything approach' that Cito and Dwayne implemented, and Lind was opening up to early against lefties causing him to be more susceptible to the breaking ball? just a thought.

On Base Percentage and the Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays struggle to get on base. There is no way to get around that fact, sure the home runs are badass, but their OBP is atrocious. Here are a few quick and easy ways to address that problem

B. Emaus > Edwin Encarnacion

Sure, you'll probably have to trade E5's 30 home run power for Emaus' 10-15 bombs, but the Jays don't really need those extra 15 homers. Emaus walks a ton, having never dipped below 10% since his rookie year, and peaking at 18% last year in AA (compared to a 14% strikeout rate). If he were to avoid the struggles many rookies face, his OBP in the bigs would probably be around .380. Imagine Bautista having a baserunner to hit with 38% of the time. Consider the fact that Bautista had a baserunner on roughly 30% of the time, and he still compiled 124 RBI's. 

Anyone > Aaron Hill

Johnny Mac had a higher OBP than Hill this year. JOHNNY. FUCKING. MAC. While Hill had good power numbers (.189 ISO) that is still massively unacceptable. Emaus can play second, but he's already being used at third, so for the sake of this article we'll consider him gone from this argument.The Jays were rumoured to be after Kelly Johnson last off-season, and although I'm too lazy to look up his contract situation, he could still probably be had for a package of Hill+B level prospect. His career OBP is .352 and his career ISO is .178, so his numbers are much better than Hill's. He's also an above average fielder. Mark Ellis and Omar Infante are also potentially available, with OBP's of .358 and .319 respectively. 

JP Arencibia = John Buck

I'm really not quite sure why i included this one. My gut tells me Jp will put up OBP's of .310 or so at the major league level, so not that much better than Buck, but I still thought I would include him here. 

Adam Lind < Manny Ramirez

Adam Lind had a terrible year. We all know that, and I for one believe he can bounce back. Signing Ramirez is not a long term move, it would be a 'hey, we have Manny, come to our games!' thing for the Jays. He can still provide value though. Move LInd's career OBP of .322 to 1B, and have Manny's carer OBP of .411 DH. Easy as that.

Cito Gaston <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< John Farrell

Adam Lind's BB% went from 8.9% to 6.2% this year. His K% went from 18.7% to 25.3%. I'm not saying Cito is wholly responsible, but i am hinting at it very strongly, with his 'Swing for the fences every single pitch' regime finally over in T.O I expect a lot of players to bounce back. Namely Hill and Lind.

The Case for Trading Shaun Marcum

I believe that the Jays should trade Shaun Marcum.

Before you pour a steaming vat of liquidized hatred into my cold dead corpse, hear me out. 

The Jays (with Marcum) would have this rotation

1 Morrow

2 Romero

3 Marcum

4 Cecil

5 Drabek/ Stewart/ R-Zep/Hill

And without Marcum

1 Morrow

2 Romero

3 Cecil

4 Drabek

5 Stewart/ R-Zep/ Hill

Do we really lose much in way of talent? or Production?

Morrow's FIP= 3.16

Ricky Romero's FIP= 3.64

Brett Cecil's FIP=4.03

Kyle Drabek's FIP AA/MLB=3.87/4.08

Shaun MArcum's FIP= 3.74

Morrow and Romero are clearly better pitchers than Marcum, stuff-wise, and production wise. Cecil will likely come close to Macum production wise next year, and i believe Drabek's FIP will end up around 3.50 or so (his xFIP was 3.59 in the MLB). The fifth starter would probably produce a FIP of about 4.30. If i were AA i would also want Stewart to pitch as little as possible in AAA So you could maybe have him start the year there, then come up in May, ala BrettCecil. You would lose value with Marcum, but not an inexplicable amount

The return for Marcum would have to be very good as well. I have no idea if the rumours were true, but he was hinted to be involved in a Brett Lawrie deal (MLBTR) close to the trade deadline. If they were able to get LAwrie, that would allow the Jays to trade A.HIll, but I'm getting ahead of myself there. I read a suggestion via the blog PIne Tar and Pocket Protectors that suggested packaging him and a prospect for Colby Rasmus, That would move Wells to DH (keeping him fresh all year), Lind to first and allow for Gose and Marisnick to take their time developing.

There is something to be said for the fact that Marcum has emerged as the off-field leader of the staff, and if I were AA I would consult with the other pitchers thoroughly before pulling the trigger on a deal.

All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs