Tuesday, October 26, 2010

The Case for Trading Shaun Marcum

I believe that the Jays should trade Shaun Marcum.

Before you pour a steaming vat of liquidized hatred into my cold dead corpse, hear me out. 

The Jays (with Marcum) would have this rotation

1 Morrow
2 Romero
3 Marcum
4 Cecil
5 Drabek/ Stewart/ R-Zep/Hill

And without Marcum

1 Morrow
2 Romero
3 Cecil
4 Drabek
5 Stewart/ R-Zep/ Hill

Do we really lose much in way of talent? or Production?

Morrow's FIP= 3.16
Ricky Romero's FIP= 3.64
Brett Cecil's FIP=4.03
Kyle Drabek's FIP AA/MLB=3.87/4.08

Shaun MArcum's FIP= 3.74

Morrow and Romero are clearly better pitchers than Marcum, stuff-wise, and production wise. Cecil will likely come close to Macum production wise next year, and i believe Drabek's FIP will end up around 3.50 or so (his xFIP was 3.59 in the MLB). The fifth starter would probably produce a FIP of about 4.30. If i were AA i would also want Stewart to pitch as little as possible in AAA So you could maybe have him start the year there, then come up in May, ala BrettCecil. You would lose value with Marcum, but not an inexplicable amount

The return for Marcum would have to be very good as well. I have no idea if the rumours were true, but he was hinted to be involved in a Brett Lawrie deal (MLBTR) close to the trade deadline. If they were able to get LAwrie, that would allow the Jays to trade A.HIll, but I'm getting ahead of myself there. I read a suggestion via the blog PIne Tar and Pocket Protectors that suggested packaging him and a prospect for Colby Rasmus, That would move Wells to DH (keeping him fresh all year), Lind to first and allow for Gose and Marisnick to take their time developing.

There is something to be said for the fact that Marcum has emerged as the off-field leader of the staff, and if I were AA I would consult with the other pitchers thoroughly before pulling the trigger on a deal.

All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs

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