Tuesday, October 26, 2010

On Base Percentage and the Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays struggle to get on base. There is no way to get around that fact, sure the home runs are badass, but their OBP is atrocious. Here are a few quick and easy ways to address that problem

B. Emaus > Edwin Encarnacion

Sure, you'll probably have to trade E5's 30 home run power for Emaus' 10-15 bombs, but the Jays don't really need those extra 15 homers. Emaus walks a ton, having never dipped below 10% since his rookie year, and peaking at 18% last year in AA (compared to a 14% strikeout rate). If he were to avoid the struggles many rookies face, his OBP in the bigs would probably be around .380. Imagine Bautista having a baserunner to hit with 38% of the time. Consider the fact that Bautista had a baserunner on roughly 30% of the time, and he still compiled 124 RBI's. 

Anyone > Aaron Hill

Johnny Mac had a higher OBP than Hill this year. JOHNNY. FUCKING. MAC. While Hill had good power numbers (.189 ISO) that is still massively unacceptable. Emaus can play second, but he's already being used at third, so for the sake of this article we'll consider him gone from this argument.The Jays were rumoured to be after Kelly Johnson last off-season, and although I'm too lazy to look up his contract situation, he could still probably be had for a package of Hill+B level prospect. His career OBP is .352 and his career ISO is .178, so his numbers are much better than Hill's. He's also an above average fielder. Mark Ellis and Omar Infante are also potentially available, with OBP's of .358 and .319 respectively. 

JP Arencibia = John Buck

I'm really not quite sure why i included this one. My gut tells me Jp will put up OBP's of .310 or so at the major league level, so not that much better than Buck, but I still thought I would include him here. 

Adam Lind < Manny Ramirez

Adam Lind had a terrible year. We all know that, and I for one believe he can bounce back. Signing Ramirez is not a long term move, it would be a 'hey, we have Manny, come to our games!' thing for the Jays. He can still provide value though. Move LInd's career OBP of .322 to 1B, and have Manny's carer OBP of .411 DH. Easy as that.

Cito Gaston <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< John Farrell

Adam Lind's BB% went from 8.9% to 6.2% this year. His K% went from 18.7% to 25.3%. I'm not saying Cito is wholly responsible, but i am hinting at it very strongly, with his 'Swing for the fences every single pitch' regime finally over in T.O I expect a lot of players to bounce back. Namely Hill and Lind.

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